2013 Results Predictions

[Brum Mum]

So - does anyone want to start the ball rolling?

Sorry - this waiting is killing me!

[Okanagan]

Some clues for you..... What's changed?

PAN - no changes anywhere in Warwickshire.

Admissions Policies - no change to Southern Area schools, but flipping of the order of inner/outer allocations in the East. In theory this should bring down the score required in the outer area, and bring it up in the inner area. In practice it looks like they sneaked this one in by the back door last year by setting the qualifying score high enough to let them offer "surplus" places from the inner area where they didn't have enough high scoring candidates to those in the outer area and even out of priority area applicants on March 1st. So this might not have the effect we'd expect this year. Also priority for those who qualify for the pupil premium (which roughly equates to qualifying for free school meals any time in the last 6 years) at LSS although the qualifying score still needs to be achieved so this shouldn't impact the scores required.

Cohort size - looks to be a little higher (broadly consistent with birth-rate statistics).

[mystery]

In all areas there will be some children who pass.

[Okanagan]

Actually there won't as there isn't a "pass" mark for Warwickshire, just a qualifying score. In theory this is different for each school (in practice it always seems, officially at least, to be the same for LSS and RHS).

[mystery]

ok, my prediction is that this year no one will have passed and no one will have failed but some will have qualified.

[Fatnorville]

I've just been re-reading the 2013 allocations thread.

For a lot of parents the worrying about GS entry only seems to end on March 1st. Sorry Brum Mum - Might be a few more months of anxiety.

[Brum Mum]

I think you're right Fatnorville - but its nice to be clear of each stage (iyswim)?

[Brum Mum]

Some clues for you..... What's changed?

PAN - no changes anywhere in Warwickshire.

Admissions Policies - no change to Southern Area schools, but flipping of the order of inner/outer allocations in the East. In theory this should bring down the score required in the outer area, and bring it up in the inner area. In practice it looks like they sneaked this one in by the back door last year by setting the qualifying score high enough to let them offer "surplus" places from the inner area where they didn't have enough high scoring candidates to those in the outer area and even out of priority area applicants on March 1st. So this might not have the effect we'd expect this year. Also priority for those who qualify for the pupil premium (which roughly equates to qualifying for free school meals any time in the last 6 years) at LSS although the qualifying score still needs to be achieved so this shouldn't impact the scores required.

Cohort size - looks to be a little higher (broadly consistent with birth-rate statistics).

Thanks Okanagan, so is it likely that the increase in cohort will increase the AQS in the South?

[Okanagan]

Maybe marginally. Last year's scores needed were lower than they had been before though (due to PAN increases last year) so the AQS will probably still be lower than it used to be before that.

[Brum Mum]

I may have my fingers crossed...