Number of school places in Bucks compared to 121 scores

[tim101032]

Would anyone know given the number of school places in Bucks (is it approximately 2200 +) whether this matches the amount of students who achieved 121 (+/- 20% or so) this year.

Given the range of scores has increased and the pass mark has stayed the same does this mean that the amount of students who have passed matches the total availability of places at the Bucks schools?

I phoned Bucks county council and they said this type of question would need to be emailed in and couldn't be answered on a phone call.

Another way of phrasing it is if every student ensured they met the distance and score criteria and selected Bucks would they get in?

[Okanagan]

They have chosen a standardisation method which is different to the norm specifically to maintain the same proportion scoring 121+. So the situation is no different to last year in terms of the ratio of passes:places.

[Sally-Anne]

Would anyone know given the number of school places in Bucks (is it approximately 2200 +) whether this matches the amount of students who achieved 121 (+/- 20% or so) this year.

Roughly (without looking it up), there are just over 2,100 places and just over 2,400 qualified children.

That is fairly typical, and quite a few of those children will have taken tests for other schools that may be their first preference.

Another way of phrasing it is if every student ensured they met the distance and score criteria and selected Bucks would they get in?

Pretty well every qualified child who expresses a preference for a Bucks GS will get a place, although it may not be their first preference school.

[Booklady]

Sally-Anne, hello again! We are starting down this path again for my younger DD, you will remember me from a few years ago!

When does the list of pass numbers for each school get published? I'd be very interested to compare with previous years!

Thanks!

[Sally-Anne]

Hi booklady

Of course I remember you, and you've not really been away anyway, have you? Dare I mention the Hotel California?

I don't really know when we might get those numbers. In the past the Bucks Free Press has submitted an FoI request, and published the numbers, usually almost a year after the test. (IIRC.)

To be honest, though, I don't really set a lot of store by them. As is mentioned on another thread, it will all depend on the cohort of each individual school in any given year. If there are 30 children in the year group and 3 get through, it's 10%. Another year there could be 8 get through and suddenly you're nearer to 30%.

The stats really only show which schools regularly deliver high or low numbers, but for most schools there are too many other factors such as wealth, parental expectation, % of FSM, tutoring, etc.

S-A

[jabba7]

Hi Sally-Anne

Please can I understand more re your comment as above, my question is how does the below impact Bucks children.

Pretty well every qualified child who expresses a preference for a Bucks GS will get a place, although it may not be their first preference school

Does this mean that if more OOC children sit the test the average pass rate is to still to allow 30% through but logic says if there is a bigger pool of children then fewer in catchment children will pass.

Also what does this do to school places in Bucks as it must be that it would put increased pressure on upper schools. I am assuming there is some data that allows the county council to work out how many Bucks children will sit the test but no such data for OOC.

Many thanks

[Booklady]

Hi booklady

Of course I remember you, and you've not really been away anyway, have you? Dare I mention the Hotel California?

I don't really know when we might get those numbers. In the past the Bucks Free Press has submitted an FoI request, and published the numbers, usually almost a year after the test. (IIRC.)

To be honest, though, I don't really set a lot of store by them. As is mentioned on another thread, it will all depend on the cohort of each individual school in any given year. If there are 30 children in the year group and 3 get through, it's 10%. Another year there could be 8 get through and suddenly you're nearer to 30%.

The stats really only show which schools regularly deliver high or low numbers, but for most schools there are too many other factors such as wealth, parental expectation, % of FSM, tutoring, etc.

S-A

Thanks Sally-Anne! Just clutching at any info - you are, as always, completely right!! It just seems there have been a lot of surprises this year - with some very low results from people expected to pass. And with the new dreadful review and appeal system - it suddenly seems to have got sooooo much harder!! Or maybe that's just with a skewed view of the year we were involved before!

And yes - Hotel California is absolutely correct!!

[Sally-Anne]

Hi jabba (another Hotel Resident ...)

Does this mean that if more OOC children sit the test the average pass rate is to still to allow 30% through but logic says if there is a bigger pool of children then fewer in catchment children will pass.

The cohort this year was bigger than usual, but my understanding is that it was a "bulge year" nationally. That will mean that a proportion of the additional children will have been Bucks-resident, and there will probably be in the usual ratio of In/Out county children who qualified. A few more OoC, but not extreme.

As you will know, having been around here for some while, I have often debunked the "OoC stealing places from under Bucks kids' noses" theory. Even before I had stats to hand, I was pretty much right every time.

Also what does this do to school places in Bucks as it must be that it would put increased pressure on upper schools.

I don't think so.

I am assuming there is some data that allows the county council to work out how many Bucks children will sit the test but no such data for OOC.

Yes, BCC has access to data such as children registered with GP surgeries, and that allows them to forecast demand in county, but they don't have data for OoC.

If I have one concern, it is that there is an increasing trend for parents from other areas to put their child in for every test going, simply as practice, even though they have little or no intention of accepting a place if the child qualifies for another, allegedly more prestigious, school. (Tiffin looms large on that front.)

That is witnessed by the many threads on here where parents ask, post-qualification, about home-school transport. The child has taken the test and qualified, and yet the parents have no clue how they will actually get them there. I often have the feeling that the parents and children may never have set foot inside the school.

That could quite easily inflate the OoC qualification rate, freeze Bucks-resident children out, and leave an increasing number of vacant places at Bucks Grammars.

S-A

[Sally-Anne]

It just seems there have been a lot of surprises this year - with some very low results from people expected to pass. And with the new dreadful review and appeal system - it suddenly seems to have got sooooo much harder!! Or maybe that's just with a skewed view of the year we were involved before!

And yes - Hotel California is absolutely correct!!

I fear you are correct on every count.

[tim101032]

I only have the information from the office of national statistics for Berkshire but the birth rate was lower in 2002 (than both 2000 and 2001) because everyone wanted a millennium baby after the millennium this dropped off slightly to then start increasing once more from 2003 births onwards