2016 cut off scores - any predictions?

[nervousmom]

Would anyone like to predict what they think each school's lowest cut off scores will be for 2016 start?

Maybe predict the scores for offers day and the lowest score finally offered?

[Petitpois]

CHG 235 (229)
KEA 224 (221)
KEVIHS 223 (219)
CHB 246 (239)
SGGS 219 (216)
BV 221 (219)
KEFW 229 (224)
HGS 210 (208)

[nervousmom]

Interesting. CHG higher than FW.

[Petitpois]

[quote="nervousmom"]Interesting. CHG higher than FW.[/quote]

In the spirit of crystal ball gazing and unjustified prejudices with a little data guessing. My logic Is

CHB flight to exclusivity drives further rise
CHG same logic
KEFW 500 rise last year will fall back and shave a couple of points off
KEVIHS 8 further places going to PP will raise the bar further. For PP i also guess that you will not get into the girls this year on 209. I am gonna be outlandish and suggest 215 for PP girls and Handsworth this year.
All others just general normal couple of % increases, except

Other guess re Handsworth boys is based on demographics and the high birth rate in Birmingham Pakistani population. I think this will push HGS scores higher and impact any of the grammars with higher proportions of Pakistani kids in them e.g. KEA

[worldcup14]

Based on the laws of supply and demand scores at worst should edge slightly up. Similar number of sitters similar number of places. Sitters might be higher than at first sight because you have to strip out the unknown number who previously sat from Warwickshire but did not apply to these schools. This years slight increase was Birmingham only sitters so the raw numbers is not comparing like with like.
However predictions should be in the range of small increase or the same. I have to again disagree with petitpoi. There is no logical upward pressure at CHB and it will not rise 3points. CHG will not rise 4 points. If I was making a wild, controversial statement I would suggest CHG is losing popularity and might fall. Based on nothing but feelings!
Again FW will not fall back 3 points. If the additional applicants was because it's more popular, then there is no evidence this has changed. More likely it was pp parents seeing the lower qualifying score and putting it down in large numbers. If this falls back it will not effect the scores offered from top down. i think BV added a class which should push their score down a couple of points.

[Petitpois]

Worldcup from my perspective I would love your post to be far far more accurate than mine. It all sounds far more measured than my finger in the air guess work.

No need to read further from here as I am going to speculate a bit.
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What do you think of the growth in the Pakistani and Bangladeshi Birth rates. They will have been a significant factor in the rise in the cities birth rates over 2006-07. May be not as big an effect for 2016, but perhaps more noticeable for 2017 and 18.

There is no specific research I am aware of into the Birmingham education economy and market, but I like the work of Phillip Ball - particularly his book critical mass and the insights into how individual decisions and group behaviour coincide.

Applying some of the ideas in that book, it struck me that when I was a boy, Handsworth Boys grammar was more diverse and reflective of Birmingham's population, than it appears to be today (ie there were more white attendees at the school). Particularly the very low numbers of white children attending the school. At some point despite:

1) really good teaching
2) consistently good academic outcomes

one of two white families decided HGS was not for them. I have not got the figures so cannot see if it was a slow gradual decline or whether a distinct "tipping" point occurred, but the % of whites at the school is very very small. Many of the people living equi-distant between KEFW and HGS, will have achieved easily good enough scores to attend HGS, but will only try for KEFW or nothing (in terms of grammars), despite HGS performance being a country mile ahead of many of the Comps in between the two and logistcs in terms of getting there barely distinguishable.

I perceive quite a lot group herding behaviour especially around that phenomenal rise in KEFW applications. Speculating further still and pointing to Ball's use of Thomas Schelling's model of neighbourhood interactions, I think there is scope for quite a degree of volatility and unpredictability in outcomes.

Evidence suggests my speculations are way off. Especially when you look at the relative stability of cut off scores over the last couple of years. It gives little reason to think they won't carry on as before.

I just wonder whether under the radar change pressure is building in the Birmingham school economy and may be several tipping points are being approached. Many would simply point to the existing enclaves map and suggest its already happened and settled down into a stable pattern as I say above. Changes and new places over the last couple of years not being enough to disturb the overall pattern.

Just some thoughts as to why I made the wild guesses I did.

[thirdtimemum]

Any thoughts on the Wolverhampton / Walsall schools?? I personally would be very surprised if QMGS came down as low as 310. I think it came down to 318 on waiting list. On the basis of the extra 30 places I believe it will cone down to 315. As regards to the others ( can't comment on majority as I haven't followed their progress) BV I think will go up to 221 ( I'm hoping not much more than that) , KEA stay the same and HGS up to 209. Not based on much more than pure guess work.

[Kismat]

Any one predict what the lowest entry would be for Sutton Copperfield girls grammar school.

[worldcup14]

If the places available at Sutton girls are the same and demand is pretty much the same there is no reason for it to change very much. Therefore logic dictates the same as last year, with the possibility of drifting one up or one down. If BV have added a class that was worth a three point drop at FW two years ago. So Sutton girls pretty much unchanged and an expanded BV down two. Each extra 10 places drops the score around one point. Last year FW lost 36 places to pp and low and behold the score rose 5. Why not 3/4 I hear you ask. Because the number of sitters rose about 700 overall. More demand and less supply = sharp increase in score. It really is quiet simple.

[thirdtimemum]

BV added an extra 30 places last year. This year it is staying the same. Even though they added places the score still went up by 2 points .