Birthrate for Sept 2016 intake

[nickynoodle]

Now, maybe i'm being optimistic…. but i was chatting to someone who said the birthrate was lower in 2004/2005.

So does this mean, maybe, possibly, hopefully, the accepted scores maybe lower?

As I say, i'm being optimistic, and currently having palpitations about the impending email on 1st March, for Birmingham King Eds consortium.

Talk me down folks, talk me down!

[happydays1]

I have also been told that it will be interesting to see.
The year my Ds got went into reception he only had 26 in his class never before or since has this happened apparently!

[nervousmom]

Now, maybe i'm being optimistic…. but i was chatting to someone who said the birthrate was lower in 2004/2005.

So does this mean, maybe, possibly, hopefully, the accepted scores maybe lower?

As I say, i'm being optimistic, and currently having palpitations about the impending email on 1st March, for Birmingham King Eds consortium.

Talk me down folks, talk me down!

Sorry to 'p' on your fire but I don't think it will make any difference. There were actually slightly mor children sitting the exam than last year, so sorry to say I don't think it will make any difference

I'm sure the number crunchers amongst us any have more of an insight.

[nickynoodle]

oh blow…. was worth a try!

[Petitpois]

Back in the day in the day house prices were going up by the week and so were the births (broadly correlated). There were people not getting into maternity suites and this got progressively worse, until people realised that houses were NOT the guaranteed way of getting rich they were before and stopped having kids, so much after 2007. That's when we had DD2

Even with the economic drivers there has been substantial population growth through Net migration. In the main wedged up pensioners have been leaving for Sunnier climes Vs relatively young EU families flocking here. One thing I have noticed anecdotally living in Sandwell is the level of the English of some of the migrants (adults) has improved massively and rapidly. My assumption is that a bright kid of an EU immigrant is just a likely to do well and will probably have a reasonably good level of English, learned from people at School and parents. There are Italians and French as well as eastern Europeans, so no generalisations, but I have always assumed that performance in the 11+ for EU migrants would broadly mirror the population bell curve.

So combined with higher birth rate with high growth in both indigenous Muslim based communities and net EU migration, you can see what is driving increased numbers of kids sitting. In short the pressure is all upwards on scores and likely to have been fuelled by Pupil Premium, driving higher engagement from traditionally less engaged sections. I read on the KE website they had got to hundreds of primary schools with their outreach programme.

What score has your DC got noodles??

I am bricking it for a reason!!!

[nickynoodle]

she got 218, and with no extra time/ allowances for her dyslexia, i didn't think she'd get above 100 if I'm honest

FW is nearest…..we don't have a cat in hells chance, but put it first with Handsworth second.

[nervousmom]

Your DD did very well. FW is unlikely I'm afraid, but she has a chance of Handsworth.

Fingers crossed you will get what you want.

[Petitpois]

Nicky Five Ways looks virtually impossible.

KEVIHS, comes down to multiple factors. I am not the most balanced or measured and I have a vested interest. but Birth rate is just one factor.

1) last years applications might be considered on trend, They were broadly the same as 2013, However there was a near 10% jump in 2014, perhaps due to increase places. I am hoping the % rise is in line with total number of extra sitters (which I believe was 274 extra this year - across all KE state schools). A rebound to the 1040 mark would be a worry, as at least 10 would probably have prefs / scores in well in excess of last years minimum scores.

2) 24 out of the 32 PP places were used last year. The out reach effort has been massive. If those extra sitters come from under privileged areas, that will be interesting. The non PP cuts off must then rise because 8 places that were available to non PP will get taken by PP children. 219 starts to look like 222 on that alone.

3) No one can know whether significant popularity shifts have occurred / random events that affect preferences.

Overall you have to look out for a cut off no higher that 221 Tuesday or on the website. Despite my gloom its plausible that the rise could be limited to that, or even in best case scenario the same as last year. 218 would have got you in last year, so keep focussed on that. No one can say hand on heart, apart from Me Julie at Birmingham city council, that you have not got a chance, so fingers crossed............

PP

[booellesmum]

DD1 was 2012 intake for seniors. By us the year below her ie/ 2013 intake was the lowest birthrate. Her primary is a 2 form intake but only had enough kids for 1 form the year below her. Another local primary only had 10 kids in their one form intake. Did that happen elsewhere? We were told it was because of the higher birthrate her year as they were millennium babies!

[hermanmunster]

2012 729,674
2011 723,913
2010 723,165
2009 706,248
2008 708,711
2007 690,013
2006 669,601
2005 645,835
2004 639,721
2003 621,469
2002 596,122
2001 594,634
2000 604,441
1999 621,872


Numbers of Births - E&W - obviously calendar, not academic years