Rankings needed to be confident of a place

[Cazbas]

Hi everyone, I hope that your sons and daughters coped well with yesterday's test and I wish you all luck with the agonising wait ahead.
I expect this has been discussed in the past, but despite searching I can't find the answer... Basically, my question is what sort of ranking is likely to guarantee a place at a school such as STR or the Crypt which has an intake of 150? Is there any place I can find historical information on this topic?
Thanks in advance.

[RedMaple]

Hi Cazbas,

When you receive the emails with the outcome of your child's results from each school you requested to share results from, they generally give an indication of the ranking that they went to on March 1st Allocations Day for the previous year's test.

This can vary from year to year depending on the numbers that took it, which school people choose as first place on their CAF, the gender split for the two co-ed schools etc. There can then be a significant amount of movement between March 1st and the end of August through people declining places and through appeals. For instance, Marling took to the child ranked 375 on March 1st, but eventually went well into the 400s by the start of term.


If you trawl through some of the threads around March 1st 2018, you'll get an idea of what happened for this September's cohort. The Crypt situation won't be easy to make any sense of - they initially only ranked 600 children which only half-filled the school on March 1st, they then ranked an additional 200 children and filled the rest of their places via the appeals process.

We've been through the system twice - one with a child who ranked within the then 120 PAN for the school we wanted, so we knew where they were going in October and one who got a ranking but not a place on March 1st so we waited two months before they got in off the waiting list. Knowing what happened with rankings the previous year was of mixed comfort with DC2 - I kind of knew that his rank was in the ballpark of technically being able to get in but tried not to think about it as schools can take to a lower rank in the year you're in and there's nothing you can do.

Hope this helps and good luck!

[atomic123]

hi,

so I am a little perplexed by what happens next.

so in 4 weeks time I will find out whether DS has met 'the standard' - is this the standard for the school I want or the standard for the county of Gloucestershire as a whole?

do they give a score at this point in 4 weeks?

will that score tell me the likelihood of being accepted at my chosen school or not?

so then we roll onto march, at which point we hit allocation day which tells me 100% whether he is accepted at chosen school or goes on a wait list?

sorry for the dumb questions, its a new system I am trying to get my head around.

thanks so much

[surfer]

My understanding is that we’ll get an email from each school we chose to share DS’ result with. If DS is within PAN for a school (eg the top 150 for STRS), we’ll just be told he’s in the top 150 and can then be almost certain that if we put that school first on the application form, we’ll get a place.

If he’s outside PAN, but not too far, we’ll be told he met the qualifying standard and he’ll be given a ranking - so for eg 250. The email will also say “in 2017 we offered to rank ***, in 2016 to rank ***” etc. So from that we’ll have an idea of whether his rank is likely to be good enough for a place if we name the school as first choice.

If his rank was too low, we’ll be told he didn’t meet the qualifying standard and therefore shouldn’t put the school on the form.

Then we fill in the form and wait til 1st March to see which school we’re allocated. After that things can still shuffle around with waiting lists and appeals, so final places possibly aren’t fully decided til May/June.

This is my first time going through the process but that’s my understanding, mainly from reading this forum!

[stroudydad]

Hi there... looking at of valid questions
Ok so on 12 Ltd October you will receive an email from each school that you asked to share with. They each tell you roughly the following about their specific school..
Whether your child has met the qualifying standard for that school
Where your DC is ranked in relation to those that shared with that particular school.
(Usually) an indication of which rank the school accepted to in previous year(s).

You must then submit your CAF to the LEA before the deadline. Then in March you get allocated a school.
Once allocated you can
A. Accept,
B. Accept but Ask for reconsideration.
C decline (don’t do this as you may not get another off).

If you accept then the offered place is yours, accept but ask for reconsideration, they will Enter you into the reshuffle which take a couple of weeks.
If you still don’t get the place you want then there are then options to appeal and/or go on waiting lists.
Most importantly make sure you ask anything if you are at all unsure, and don’t miss any deadlines.

Hope this helps.

SD

[Skip]

Not sure if this helps but the PAN for the schools is as following (someone please correct if I'm wrong):
Pates (co-ed) - 150
STR (boys) - 150
Crypt (co-ed) - 150
Marling (boys) - 150
Denmark Rd (girls) - 150
Stroud High (girls) - 150
Ribston (girls) - 120

So for Sept 2019 entry you can work available places overall. I tend to split the co-ed schools 50 / 50 but I've heard the test favours boys so you may want to adjust a little for that. There will also be appeals so school may go a little over PAN. Again up to you how much you want to allow for that. I don't tend to bother as I assume you are looking for a rough estimate? So assume 450 ish boys places and 570 girls places.

Perhaps someone else knows how many sat the test? Again I'd just assume the candidates were split 50 / 50 between girls and boys. Also some are 11+ tourists, some will prefer a comp or independent school. But overall perhaps this helps you assess the lowest rank (ish) to get a GS place. I appreciate it doesn't help with specific schools.

[steppemum]

Skip - sorry but I am not sure that helps.

each school is different, so for example, you may get letters saying

you have NOT qualified for Pates
you have qualified in the top 150 for SHS
you have qualified at rank number 172 for HSG

The letters from the school are your best bet, they give you actual figures.

It says something like this (numbers are approx)

You have achieved the qualifying score for XX school and been ranked at 325

In 2018 XX school accepted pupils down to 362
In 2017 XX accepted pupils down to 340
In 2016 XX accepted pupils down to 354
In 2015 XX accepted pupils down to 315

From that you can gauge if your 325 is likely to get you a place or not. Most schools increased their number of kids 2 years ago (current year 9) which is why 2015 numbers are lower.
Remember that there is far less movement for Pates than the others, which is why they only rank down to 180 or so, and the others rank down to 400 ish

For the record they said that 2,500 sat this year. But you must remember that a chunk of those are not going to pass, as they are way off the mark, and then the pass mark is set differently each year.
The schools aim to put the pass mark at around the level that they take most people who pass.

[stroudydad]

I’ve said it before and will again, if you sit the test the odds are roughly 1in 2 of getting a place.
If you’re a grammar or bust parent and your child is bright enough to actually pass it’s not that hard to get a place..

[muminTewkes]

I hope you’re right!

[Birdbridge]

I just keep thinking about the 2500 kids who sat the test and calculating how many spaces are actually available and end up feeling disheartened!