Sally-Anne's crystal ball thread 2019

[Deb70]

Good luck lea2124 - I hope he gets in to AGS. Fingers crossed for you x

[Pidney]

Hi,

I think the first number preference numbers is meant to be based on the ones that have been successful in appeal. Sally-Anne is however not so sure .

Therefore lea2124 if your appeal is successful, you are already included in the 200, 14 furthest away will miss out.

Good luck lea2124!

[scary mum]

I'm sure we are talking about the same thing, but just for clarity for the future, the appeals have not yet taken place. Those successful in the selection reviews will be included in the first round. Those successful at appeal will be considered in later rounds as the appeals take place after allocation day.

[Sally-Anne]

I think the first number preference numbers is meant to be based on the ones that have been successful in appeal. Sally-Anne is however not so sure

I am as sure as I can be that it doesn't include all successful Reviews because the preference numbers are always published before all the Reviews have been heard. Whether it includes successful Reviews up to the point of publication, I don't know, but it would be a bit odd to only include partial figures.

Therefore lea2124 if your appeal is successful, you are already included in the 200, 14 furthest away will miss out.

I wouldn't be too conscience-stricken about it. From past experience, some of those 14 may well be from such far-flung locations that even if they received a place, they would be on here 5 minutes later asking if there are school buses from Timbuktu to Aylesbury ...

(x-post with scary)

[BlueBerry]

I’m really shocked that RGS’s prediction are 10miles out of catchment! Why this change Sally-Anne?

[Sally-Anne]

It's not that big a change. Last year was in-area to 8.462 miles, and OA to 10 miles is just a nudge over the border of the catchment area, not a whole extra 10 miles! All the distances are from the school gates.

The difference between IA and OA can often depend simply on the shape of the school's catchment and where the applicants hail from. Very hard to call, but what you really have to do with the allocation table is to look at the two factors separately: Is it IA or OA, i.e. catchment only or beyond catchment? Then you have to look at the distance as the second, separate factor.

IYSWIM.

[BlueBerry]

Thanks for the explanation Sally-Anne. It makes a lot of sense when you put it that way. I’m still gutted that we didn’t get RGS last year. My DS on the other hand, is utterly delighted that he got into JHGS

[kips]

Thanks so much for this!
Very interesting.

Sally-Anne, where do you get the first preferences figures from?
Are these actual figures from Bucks Admissions?

Apologies if this has already been asked and answered!

[Sally-Anne]

Sally-Anne, where do you get the first preferences figures from?
Are these actual figures from Bucks Admissions?

Yes, they are actual figures. The preference numbers are circulated to all the secondary schools. It's a sort of clapometer by which they measure their popularity.

[lea2124]

saw a friend today (who's son is also going down the S.R path), she actually works in another local primary school near to our school and she told me that the primary schools found out last Monday (28th Jan) on who had been successful. So Sally-Anne it looks like that could be the final, all included figures for this year. Is my son one of them I wonder?????

2 days to go.........