Stage 2 results: what are my chances? Wilson vs SGS data

[dh28]

SGS and Wilson do not release ranking information to students who pass stage 2, so below information is not directly applicable, and only provides "likelihood" of getting offer on national offer day and waitlists subsequently. Even if you pass both the tests, you will only know the real outcome on national offer day (1st March 2021, 5pm).

As stage 2 results will be declared on 16 Dec for this year's SET exams, here is some data taken from whatdotheyknow.com for indication on likelihood of getting the admission on National Offer Day if DS passes in Stage 2 for SGS and/or Wilson.

Wilsons Data

Year 2019
Min Score 493
Max Score 647
Min Rank 2
Max Rank 423
No of students offered on 1st Mar: 202
WL Movement 17

Year 2018
Min Score 502
Max Score 657
Min Rank 1
Max Rank 391
No of students offered on 1st Mar: 198
WL Movement 13

Year 2017
Min Score 495
Max Score 638
Min Rank 3
Max Rank 412
No of students offered on 1st Mar: 218
WL Movement 0


Year 2016
Min Score 502
Max Score 657
Min Rank 3
Max Rank 373
No of students offered on 1st Mar: 219
WL Movement 4

Wilson Summary

Wilson routinely over offers on the national offer day, so the waitlist movement seems to be very small: it has ranged from 0 in 2017 to 17 in 2019

Wilsons and SGS invited around 1045 students this year out of 2700 boys who sat stage 1. Last year, SET 1 was attended by 3100 boys, my guess about this year's reduction of 400 boys is because of absence of boys from North London, etc. who already know they have received offers from schools like QE. This implies less competition on the top (absence of top scorers who did not attend SET 1 from North London for practice).

If DS rank is within top 400 students, it is certain that you will get admission in Wilsons (if that is your top choice).

Wilsons has passed around 600-650 students in recent years in Stage 2 and SGS has passed around 800-850.

Top students choice between Wilson vs SGS

Wilsons and SGS have also released the ranking of students who are admitted on 1st march for past few years, and here is a different way of looking at this data. Following data shows how many students in the ranked list for each school accepted the school's offer. For example, the first row shows that amongst top 100 students on rank list prepared by SGS, 41 students accepted SGS offer on national offer day and on rank list prepared by Wilsons, amongst top 100 students, 38 students accepted Wilsons offer.

Year 2019

Rank Range SGS Wilson
0-100 41 38
100-200 46 50
200-300 9 49
300-400 22 52
400-500 30 12
500-600 3 0


Year 2018

Rank Range SGS Wilson
0-100 34 44
100-200 51 53
200-300 17 53
300-400 20 47
400-500 28 0
500-600 0 0

As everyone is aware, we cannot do strict comparison between Wilson and SGS rank list because they weigh the SET 1 and SET 2 scores differently (1:1:4:4 vs 2:2:3:3 respectively, so if DS scores better in Stage 2 and lower in stage 1 (relatively), they will be ranked higher in Wilsons rank list as compared to SGS rank list). However, for the purpose of above comparison, we can consider that well prepared boys will score equally well in both stages generally (though there can be some exceptions, especially considering SET 2 tests slightly different skills). However, as Wallington headteacher said in his recent email:

Wallington County Grammar School does not hold a second stage test. The reason for this is that, previously, when we designed and ran a second examination, the results and rankings that were produced were almost identical to the initial Selective Eligibility Test which is extremely well designed for identifying students suitable for a grammar school education.

Summary of data between Wilsons and SGS

As indicated above, if DS is ranked within top 400 students, it is certain that you will get admission in Wilsons on national offer day(if that is your top choice).

If DS is ranked within top 480 students, it is certain that you will get admission in SGS on national offer day (if that is your top choice). Between rank 480-570, your chances are very good to get admitted in SGS via waitlist. However, if your DS has ranked between 300-570, then your chances are higher if you are in inner cachement area (see below**).

SGS also generally over offers students against its allocation (PAN allocated is 135 seats, but on national offer day, SGS offered 153 students in 2019 and 152 students in 2018). SGS waitlist movement is much higher that Wilsons: upto 36 students from waitlist were offered admission in 2019 and upto 47 boys from waitlist were offered admission in 2018.


Looking at choice of top 200 student ranked in both lists, it also seems that equal number of students choose SGS and Wilsons, which shows that both schools are equally popular amongst top scoring boys. This dispels the myth that Wilsons is most popular school amongst top scorers.


**Wilson does not have a cachement area, so its bottom ranks are higher than SGS (even when Wilsons has 186 seats as compared to 135 in SGS, Wilson seats gets filled faster than SGS). As SGS operates an inner cachement area for first 75 seats, it ends up choosing students (in inner cachement area) who have scored within first 570 students. instead of selecting other top scoring students because they are out of cachement area. (This is not good for wellbeing of boys who travel to Wilson from far IMO, have personally heard several anecdotes of students coming to Wilsons from far away areas like Harrow, North London, etc.)

So in summary:

Wilson

If you have passed 2nd stage in Wilsons, there is ~65% chance of getting an offer on national offer day (that is, if your DS is ranked in top 420 students out of ~650 passed boys on the Wilson rank list). Waitlist movement has been minimal in last few years (e.g. between 0-17).

SGS
If you have passed 2nd stage in SGS, there is ~60% chance of getting an offer on national offer day (that is if your DS is ranked in top 480 students out of ~800 passed boys on the SGS rank list. Via SGS waitlists, there is further ~11% chance (so a total of 71% chance) of getting an offer in SGS before the end of the next year. Waitlist movement of ~40 students seen in last couple of years.

[bridge]

Interesting set of data. Many thanks for the analysis.

[happymommy2]

Very useful info. Thank you.
Do they give rank order with Stage2 results?

[SurreyGrammar]

Invaluable insights, many thanks.

But, as far as I know, we can’t learn the ranking, if boys will pass the exam. So, how can we do an “estimation” for the national day offers?

[bridge]

First time for us. I was under the impression that the boys' schools don't give the marks until National Offers day and then only to candidates that don't make it.

[spv]

Wilsons and SGS invited around 1045 students this year out of 2700 boys who sat stage 1. Last year, SET 1 was attended by 3100 boys, my guess about this year's reduction of 400 boys is because of absence of "tourists" from North London, etc. who already know they have received offers from schools like QE. This implies less competition on the top (absence of top scorers who did not attend SET 1 from North London for practice).

Excellent analysis.

We all know that grammar schools distribution is highly imbalanced within England and there are good number of post codes do not fall under any grammar school's catchment.

I feel usage of the word 'tourists' is not appropriate and hurts a lot to the community who are already suffering due to this imbalance.

Moderators ?

[dh28]

Wilsons and SGS invited around 1045 students this year out of 2700 boys who sat stage 1. Last year, SET 1 was attended by 3100 boys, my guess about this year's reduction of 400 boys is because of absence of "tourists" from North London, etc. who already know they have received offers from schools like QE. This implies less competition on the top (absence of top scorers who did not attend SET 1 from North London for practice).

Excellent analysis.

We all know that grammar schools distribution is highly imbalanced within England and there are good number of post codes do not fall under any grammar school's catchment.

I feel usage of the word 'tourists' is not appropriate and hurts a lot to the community who are already suffering due to this imbalance.

Moderators ?

There have been posts on this forum about several DS attending SET tests as a "practice" with no intention of attending any Grammar schools in Sutton, and the speculation was about that cohort.

Apologies as there was no intention to hurt feelings for anyone, I have changed the wordings of my original post.

[streathammum]

Wilsons and SGS invited around 1045 students this year out of 2700 boys who sat stage 1. Last year, SET 1 was attended by 3100 boys, my guess about this year's reduction of 400 boys is because of absence of "tourists" from North London, etc. who already know they have received offers from schools like QE. This implies less competition on the top (absence of top scorers who did not attend SET 1 from North London for practice).

Excellent analysis.

We all know that grammar schools distribution is highly imbalanced within England and there are good number of post codes do not fall under any grammar school's catchment.

I feel usage of the word 'tourists' is not appropriate and hurts a lot to the community who are already suffering due to this imbalance.

Moderators ?

I think those people who don't have grammars nearby often benefit from having true all-ability comps instead - there's a lot to be said for not having to go through to pain of examination at age 10 in order to get into a school that caters for your ability. So I don't think people who don't live in a grammar catchment are 'suffering'.

And I don't think it's inappropirate to use the word 'tourist' to describe people who sit exams for schools that they couldn't possibly attend without moving house.

[confusedsw]

Very nice analysis for boys, does anyone has a similar analysis for girls.Worried mum here,thanks.

[streathammum]

Girls are given their scores and the previous cut-offs are available on the school websites. So it's much clearer for them.