Allocations

[Thumper2021]

I can’t imagine they’re under PAN as I know someone who put crypt as their first choice and didn’t get in - strange

[starcrazy]

I can’t imagine they’re under PAN as I know someone who put crypt as their first choice and didn’t get in - strange

Assuming the child qualified for Crypt, that is strange!

I can’t remember when allocation data statistics are usually published? I assumed the 1st March but nothing on the GCC site yet.

[Thumper2021]

I’m assuming they did as they were quite surprised by the result - but maybe you’re right

[Bells]

Out of the girls schools and Crypt, all filled PAN on 1st of March apart from Ribston which had 1 space left - I specifically asked. But there is not a lot of qualified candidates left; 10 for Crypt, 6 for SHS and 21 for DR. Depending on late tests and reconsideration it might be enough or might not..

[Brackenboo]

I wonder if they are covering bases as some people are likely to want to change as they had to submit CAF before knowing results.

Will be interesting to see if there is a lot more movement than normal the is years plus more appeals...

[2Socks]

Bells, there's also the consideration that some of those may be the same children, and it may be the case that they are not actually wanting a place at those grammars. I know of one who was only interested in Pate's... didn't get a qualifying score for pates, but did for a couple of others. They're not interested in taking up a place at the other grammars. DRHS qualified about the same last year and went to a very similar position on allocation day, but with the other schools accepting girls all having less leeway it's no guarantees for them either. Let's not forget that although Pate's still have approximately 25 qualified to allocate (ignoring late test) they normally have more like 45. I'd always assumed they gave such a large leeway as many kids rejected the place to go independent, but no idea where Pate's waiting lists usually end up at the start of September. Of course appeals from those who didn't qualify will also help.
I wonder how many are 'left' for the boys schools too. I agree with Glos18...I doubt many will change their order of preference, although there's always some who change their minds when they think about commuting, or home life changes etc.
As someone said earlier in the thread the opportunity for geekery around 11+ stats is huge!

[SwimmingUpstream]

I don't think they are the same children looking through the results thread:

Although DRHS and SHS both qualified about the same number, there were people who qualified for SHS and not DRHS and got allocated SHS so all 6 left for SHS won't be in the 11 left for DRHS.

Then the there are figures showing that the cut off for Crypt falls somewhere between round 330-363 for DRHS, so the 11 girls left for DRHS won't be in the 10 left for Crypt.

I think..... although it feels like a question that should be in next year's entrance exam and I'm happy to be corrected!

So Crypt are fishing for children who put another school above them on the CAF and have been offered another grammar school already; children who only put Pates and didn't get a place; or boys who put some combination of Pates, Marling and/or STR and didn't get an offer. There isn't enough data on either results or allocations to tell quite where the boys lie.

[Glos18]

Swimming, you are right that there are different children on each of the schools' 'buffer zone lists' but the domino effect it causes means that they may as well be the same children.

Let's take Amy. She got a place at Pates but has found out she has a scholarship for CLC so turns down her Pates place. Pates now has to go down to rank 204.

Rank 204 is Beth who is currently holding a place at Denmark rd. She moves to Pates so Denmark rd has to go down to rank 426.

Rank 426 is Claire who is currently holding a place at Stroud. She moves to DRHS so Stroud has to go down to rank 441.

Rank 441 is Dora who is currently holding a place at Ribston. She moves to Stroud and Ribston is now 2 under PAN.

So just from Amy going private, 4 schools have had to move down their waiting lists. Over simplified, but hopefully you get what I mean.

[SwimmingUpstream]

Yes, I see what you mean.

[2Socks]

Glos18 thanks for explaining my thinking better than I could! It was that borrowing from Peter to pay Paul (kids on waiting lists are mostly likely to be the same as those who have offers at other grammars) that I was thinking about. (As Swimming Upstream also discussed. Swimming Upstream, I also agree with you that the kids on those waiting lists are not going to be the actual same children... I think you've earned an 11+ pass ) It will be interesting to see how it all pans out. I'm suspecting though that the vast majority of those girls who qualified for grammar will be able to get a grammar place, although it may not be their first choice of grammar. (Again, I'm just a Muppet on the internet; please don't get excited because I'm playing with data with no professional expertise!)
Brackenboo, I hope so. I know many were wondering which grammars to leave off the CAF. I can easily see how people may have missed off the 'wrong' school, especially in those areas with fewer CAF choices.
Sorry for the essay!