Pass rate is high this year?

[Sally-Anne]

how many total places are there across all the bucks grammar schools?
3112 pupils are currently qualified. -can this number be accommodated across the schools?

I haven't added them all up lately, and a couple have changed their PAN, but it must now be just under 2,200.

So no, all 3,112 qualifiers can't be accommodated, but last year around 500 qualifiers didn't even name a Bucks GS on their CAF. Either they had just used the test as a mock for other CEM tests, and had no intention of applying to Bucks in the first place, or they qualified in another neighbouring area so didn't need to name a Bucks GS on their form.

[Lillie]

I haven't added them all up lately, and a couple have changed their PAN, but it must now be just under 2,200.

So no, all 3,112 qualifiers can't be accommodated, but last year around 500 qualifiers didn't even name a Bucks GS on their CAF. Either they had just used the test as a mock for other CEM tests, and had no intention of applying to Bucks in the first place, or they qualified in another neighbouring area so didn't need to name a Bucks GS on their form.

It seems a bit of a risk to qualify nearly 1,000 more DC than there are spaces. And that's not allowing for those who qualify on review / appeal.

So the grammar schools must be assuming a very large number (and more than the 500 figure from last year) won't apply for a Bucks GS place?

[southbucks3]

I haven't added them all up lately, and a couple have changed their PAN, but it must now be just under 2,200.

So no, all 3,112 qualifiers can't be accommodated, but last year around 500 qualifiers didn't even name a Bucks GS on their CAF. Either they had just used the test as a mock for other CEM tests, and had no intention of applying to Bucks in the first place, or they qualified in another neighbouring area so didn't need to name a Bucks GS on their form.

It seems a bit of a risk to qualify nearly 1,000 more DC than there are spaces. And that's not allowing for those who qualify on review / appeal.

So the grammar schools must be assuming a very large number (and more than the 500 figure from last year) won't apply for a Bucks GS place?

Not really a risk, its just where the admissions distance criteria may kick in, no different from comps or uppers in that respect.

[Sally-Anne]

Another swift bit of "back of envelope/fag packet" calculation. I haven't got time to type it out at the moment, but it's based on the numbers in my post on Page 1.

My prediction is that out of 3112 qualifiers, something like 770 won't name a Bucks GS. There would therefore be around 2342 pupils chasing approximately 2200 places.

Grabbing a random file for a year pre-CEM, and coming up with 2013 admission, there were 2398 first preferences for a Bucks GS.

Historically, something like 98%+ of all Bucks resident applicants have received their first preference GS, and 2013 was no exception, so this year's numbers don't seem likely to result in a huge change.

<polishes crystal ball>

[Guest55]

All qualifiers who live in Bucks catchments are guaranteed a GS place but not necessarily at their first choice GS.

[HJJ]

So the increase will naturally affect out of county applications. > passes less places?

[kittymum]

Yes my guess would be that it would affect ooc and that we will see the allocation distances decrease.

[southbucks3]

Of course it all depends whether the increase in pass rates was evenly distributed, bucks children could have theoretically had a lowering of passes and ooc a big rise in passes.
extremely unlikely, but it could be?? Then it would just means that the closest by dstance of the ooc get the places but the allocation profile could still get wider, depending where the extra 500 ooc live.

Let's just wait and see.

[Sally-Anne]

I've just done a quick calculation, and the current number of Y7 GS places seems to be 2154, although that doesn't include the additional 30 places that DCHS made available this year, and that we were then told would continue to be made available in future years.

[southbucks3]

What a beautiful headline they have created for the pro build a grammar school in Maidenhead campaigners though.

3000 SUCCESSFUL BUCKS KIDS CHASE JUST 2000 GRAMMAR PLACES!

There will of course be no reference to the fact that a sizeable proportion are not from bucks county catchment areas and don't even want a place at a bucks grammar.

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