Disclaimer: The author bears no responsibility for any decisions made based on any information or opinion contained herein
This post summarises my attempts at trying to analyse the limited information on CEM results. The Admissions Office at CCHS has not been helpful with my request for some basic information, unlike the CSSE office. Hence I have no actual facts to use, but can only extrapolate based on the limited information in the CCHS letter and some of the scores and cut offs for 2014 entry and 2015 entry posted in this forum.
Some key points, best taken with a large dose of salt:
1. I believe the CEM test scores are standardised with a mean score of 100
2. The distribution of scores is broadly normal, but is skewed towards scores being slightly below average offset by a small number of very high scores
3. The range of scores for 2014 entry was 50 to 143 and for 2015 entry 66 to 138. This is not to say anyone necessarily scored 66 or 138, but those were the minimum and maximum scores theoretically possible
4. Working backwards and trying to match the proportion of scores in the top bracket, statistically speaking the standard deviation for 2014 entry was 10.7 and for 2015 entry 12.6
5. Assuming the cutoff score for in catchment place in 2014 was around 107, this would have been around rank 200 out of 848
6. Extrapolating 2014 into 2015 means that a in catchment score of 108.5 would result in a rank around 200 and should be sufficient for an offer. Scores slightly below 108.5 could still be successful but this starts getting close to the borderline
7. If the cut off score for out of catchment places in 2014 entry was around 116, this would be rank 57 out of 848
8. Applying the same ratio for 2015 entry means a successful out of catchment score would be around 118.50
9. Because there is a maximum of only 24 places for out of catchment places, the statistical model is less useful in predicting the cut offs and individual preferences by the high scores become very significant
10. These points are based on a statistical model which has significant limitations and limited predictive power. Caveat emptor and Good Luck!
Hi, firstly I would like to say Welldone for the immense amount of time and feedback you give here. like all of us I've been questioning, trying to get answers that would help me move on with the CAF application!
I would be super grateful if you could advise me if a should not put Chelmsford (CCHS ) as an option. 95% of me says not to as my dd's score is in the second band and there are so many fantastic high scores above her. Another school can be entered instead of CCHS on the application.
Her score is 96.09 (91.01-104) we are OOC .
Now what confuses me is what is stated on the results letter that:Do not worry if your daughter is not in the top range as not everyone who sat the test formally applies for a place
Are they referring to the people inside catchment, or both? I have already counted 10 high OOC results that want CCHS as their first choice, so shall a leave this completely off my list or do as they say to apply being in the second band? I would feel crazy to do this as I feel we won't have a chance, but statically I'm really not sure?
Why would they say that? The two bands make up 600 girls. Would love to hear what you think? Thankyou