Tory party falling apart?

[mad?]

Personally I relish the prospect of Jacob Rees-Mogg being elected leader of the party and consigning them to electoral oblivion for a generation

I worry that it wouldn't, though. Remember that 'the country' apparently chose Brexit. What is to say that the same people would not choose him, for all his 'traditional values' (anti-everything minorities and women have fought for for generations, basically) and 'back to the 1950s' persona? It could easily misfire. Many who voted Brexit did so out of some warped sense of 'Britain for the British' which almost instantly after the vote became a comfortable discourse for racist, homophobic, misogynist tendencies espoused by some who beforehand would have been marginalised as extremists. RM would comfortably lead a party supporting such unpalatable values.

We are stuffed imho - no effective opposition and a car crash of a government limping on in the face of unbelievable odds. Just as I cannot see how Trump is still president, I cannot see how May is still PM. Bad times.

^^^ THIS. 100%. The country going (back) to wrack and ruin and being run by a 6th form debating competition between (to make it relevant to the forum!) Eton and grammar schools. What an appalling advert for both.

[mike1880]

So you think JRM can successfully position himself as the anti-establishment candidate? Looking forward to that...

[anotherdad]

So you think JRM can successfully position himself as the anti-establishment candidate? Looking forward to that...

Why not? I didn't predict the outcomes of the last two general elections or the referendum and neither did many commentators much more knowledgeable and experienced than I am. If someone had come up with predictions three years ago that we'd have a Conservative majority government followed by a referendum result to take us out of the EU, followed by Theresa May as PM followed by another Conservative government with no overall majority, they'd have been considered far-fetched. And that doesn't even begin to explain how Boris ended up as Foreign Secretary.

I've come to accept that anything, no matter how ridiculous or unpalatable (and JRM is clearly both), is possible. I have neither the time nor the crayons to deal with UKIP but the way things are going I can foresee their resurgence as the realities of Brexit begin to bite. Something will have to be held to blame for the immediate and medium-term pain that Brexit will bring, and it won't be the establishment. JRM, Farage and co will happily court votes from those too stupid to understand the realities of the situation and won't reject the support of those for whom nationalism is confused with patriotism. I don't think Brexit will work. Not just because I'm ideologically opposed to it, but because I just cannot see how the current farce of a government, left unchallenged by a rabble of an opposition, can possibly implement a successful exit or the things that we will need to do over the coming years. As soon as the referendum result was known, we should have set up a coalition government for a five year period or similar. Brexit is too important to leave to the Tories who can't even keep their own party together on the subject and Labour don't present a credible alternative in their current state.

[loobylou]

So you think JRM can successfully position himself as the anti-establishment candidate? Looking forward to that...

Why not? I didn't predict the outcomes of the last two general elections or the referendum and neither did many commentators much more knowledgeable and experienced than I am. If someone had come up with predictions three years ago that we'd have a Conservative majority government followed by a referendum result to take us out of the EU, followed by Theresa May as PM followed by another Conservative government with no overall majority, they'd have been considered far-fetched. And that doesn't even begin to explain how Boris ended up as Foreign Secretary.

I've come to accept that anything, no matter how ridiculous or unpalatable (and JRM is clearly both), is possible. I have neither the time nor the crayons to deal with UKIP but the way things are going I can foresee their resurgence as the realities of Brexit begin to bite. Something will have to be held to blame for the immediate and medium-term pain that Brexit will bring, and it won't be the establishment. JRM, Farage and co will happily court votes from those too stupid to understand the realities of the situation and won't reject the support of those for whom nationalism is confused with patriotism. I don't think Brexit will work. Not just because I'm ideologically opposed to it, but because I just cannot see how the current farce of a government, left unchallenged by a rabble of an opposition, can possibly implement a successful exit or the things that we will need to do over the coming years. As soon as the referendum result was known, we should have set up a coalition government for a five year period or similar. Brexit is too important to leave to the Tories who can't even keep their own party together on the subject and Labour don't present a credible alternative in their current state.

Great post! (Though I still have the naiveté / optimism to hope that Labour might get it together to be credible enough at the next election).

[anotherdad]

Great post! (Though I still have the naiveté / optimism to hope that Labour might get it together to be credible enough at the next election).

Thanks. I suspect that Labour are simply not interested in being anywhere near government at the moment or in the next few years. It could be a period in politics where grabbing power in the next few years could see them with no chance for a decade or more afterwards. Brexit is inevitable and a bad Brexit now seems very likely. Why would you want to be held accountable for the immediate and medium-term consequences of it?

[loobylou]

Great post! (Though I still have the naiveté / optimism to hope that Labour might get it together to be credible enough at the next election).

Thanks. I suspect that Labour are simply not interested in being anywhere near government at the moment or in the next few years. It could be a period in politics where grabbing power in the next few years could see them with no chance for a decade or more afterwards. Brexit is inevitable and a bad Brexit now seems very likely. Why would you want to be held accountable for the immediate and medium-term consequences of it?

That's true. That's also why I think Boris won't stop up if there's a leadership challenge. I think he'll pave the way for some other poor fool...

[Amber]

I think he'll pave the way for some other poor fool...

Plenty of those to choose from.

[anotherdad]

I think he'll pave the way for some other poor fool...

Plenty of those to choose from.

I'm not convinced. Wealthy fools? Yes. Lots of those.

[mike1880]

The fundamental problem is that May and the rest of the party STILL sees this as first and foremost an issue of party management, i.e. preserving the Tory party intact. Getting an outcome that's in the national interest just isn't on the agenda. Since the two wings are entirely irreconcilable (that's how we got into this mess in the first place, remember) and incapable of arriving at a mutually acceptable position, we can't expect any sort of Brexit deal until and unless the Tory party falls apart. JRM becoming leader might (although I doubt it) be what's needed to make that happen. (However, if the anti-Corbyn PLP majority was then stupid enough to merge with the Remain wing then I agree JRM would look like the most likely winner out of the whole mess.)

"The natural party of government", anyone? Can't say I'm seeing it.

[Amber]

I think he'll pave the way for some other poor fool...

Plenty of those to choose from.

I'm not convinced. Wealthy fools? Yes. Lots of those.

yes touché.

The fundamental problem is that May and the rest of the party STILL sees this as first and foremost an issue of party management, i.e. preserving the Tory party intact.

Oh absolutely yes. That is why we have the almost laughably ironic situation of a government which owes its slender majority to the popularity of Scot in a same-sex marriage being (expensively) propped up by a party which believes homosexuality to be the work of the devil. The whole tenure of May's premiership has been a case of party before government and government before country. And I am sorry but that patronising smirk she seems to wear almost permanently these days is starting to make it impossible to look at her as well as listen to her.